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2027 Social Security COLA Projections: What the Estimates Say
What 3.5%–3.6% would mean in dollars
For the average retired worker — whose benefit is roughly $2,000 a month — a raise in that range works out to about $70 more per month, or roughly $840 a year, before any change in Medicare premiums. Use the free calculator to see the math on your own benefit instead of an average.
How this raise compares with recent years
| Year the COLA applied | COLA |
|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.8% |
| 2025 | 2.5% |
| 2024 | 3.2% |
| 2023 | 8.7% — the largest in four decades |
| 2022 | 5.9% |
| 2021 | 1.3% |
| 2020 | 1.6% |
| 2019 | 2.8% |
| 2018 | 2.0% |
| 2017 | 0.3% |
A 2027 COLA near 3.5% would be the largest since 2023 — a sign that inflation, while far below its 2022 peak, is still running warmer than it did in the late 2010s.
Why the projection keeps moving
The COLA formula compares average July–September inflation (CPI-W) against the same months a year earlier. Each monthly inflation report nudges the estimate: projections firmed up after the July and August readings, and the September report — released October 14 — settles it. That is why estimates published in summer often differ a few tenths from the final number.
What to do between now and October 14
- Estimate your new check with the calculator (it uses the current 3.5% projection and switches to the official rate on announcement morning).
- Make sure you can log into your my Social Security account — your official notice lands there in December.
- Join the free beta below and get the official number emailed to you the morning it drops.
On October 14 CheckDay emails beta members the official 2027 COLA and what it means for their check — in plain English.
Join the free beta →